VITAL STATISTICS

Older and younger shoppers will set retail trends

SV:  What do demographic trends suggest will be hot niches for retail in the next five to 10 years?

Francese: First on my list is anything to do with pets. Any kind of retailing that sells stuff for dogs, cats or other such child substitutes should be doing very well. As baby boomers age there will be more empty nesters and they spend a great deal of money on their pets.

I also think we will see increased sales in anything having to do with personal or health care including both over the counter medicines and cosmetics as well as prescription drugs.

In the food category we are likely to see continued growth in natural or organic foods as well as prepared foods and anything that can lay claim to being locally produced food (within 40 to 50 miles). Farmers markets have introduced many thousands of Seacoast shoppers to the benefits of eating locally grown produce.

Judging from growth in the 18-24 population there is also a bright outlook for certain kinds of clothing stores.

Office supplies are another niche. In New Hampshire there are at least 100,000 enterprises that have little or no payroll but are small one or two person operations in businesses that use lots of office supplies such as copy paper and ink toner. Small businesses are a vital part of the New Hampshire economy. Anyone in office supply or small business services should do well.

SV:  What impact will the aging boomer generation have on retail sales?

There are three areas where their impact will be felt. One is home furnishings because aging boomers have a high propensity to own two homes. An example of this is the growing market for plants, both indoor and outdoor.

Baby boomers also have higher incomes and the Seacoast is heavy with high-income families.

So I suspect that paintings and other artwork will continue to sell briskly. The art scene in Portsmouth is likely to be robust for a long time, as will retailers of jewelry, luggage and other types of accessories for traveling.

The final area is specialty foods. People whose children have left home often have the time and interest to enjoy cooking. Quality food and wine shops should do quite well.

SV:  New Hampshire has no sales tax. How does this affect retail on New Hampshire’s Seacoast as well as southern Maine?

Perhaps because of the absence of a sales tax many people come from outside the state to shop here. As a result Rockingham County’s retail sales per household last year were more than $50,000. That is nearly twice the national average and way more than we could expect from local shoppers, whose average annual household income is just $80,000.

So not having a sales tax has a positive effect, but there are limits. The limits revolve around the kind of choice of products and types of stores. For commodity goods such as large appliances and ride-on lawn mowers, people will often come to New Hampshire because they can save a lot.

But if a store or group of stores have unique merchandise the New Hampshire sales tax advantage is irrelevant. For example, the Kittery Malls and nearby stores seem to be booming regardless of the Maine sales tax.

SV:  How do you explain the boom happening in Seabrook, Epping and Raymond? Are there any other local areas poised for major growth?

Some of the fastest growing towns in New Hampshire are in the vicinity of Epping and Raymond. According to the 2005 estimates from the Census Bureau, the fastest growing town in New Hampshire since 2000 is East Kingston. The second fastest is Chester and sixth is Brentwood.

The list of top 10 also includes Windham and Nottingham. That part of Rockingham County is about halfway between Manchester and Portsmouth and it has much of the only large tracts of land available for development. Its rapid growth is what has attracted retail operations like Wal-Mart.

Other towns are not growing because they may have introduced growth controls or moratoriums.

Many communities do not want any more growth and as a result the population growth rate for New Hampshire, at 0.8 percent per year, has slipped below the national average. Rockingham County’s population growth rate is now just 0.9 percent per year compared to 1.3 percent per year during the 1990s.

York County is growing at the same rate as Rockingham, but it is the fastest growing county in the state of Maine and one third of all population growth in the state of Maine since 2000 went to York County. In York County two high-growth towns are Berwick and North Berwick.

SV:  Why are malls filled with teenagers?

The Roman markets were filled with young people over 2000 years ago and the malls are just today’s Roman markets. They are the place to see and be seen and to make sure you are up on and buying the latest fashions. Teens can also check out the hottest music with their friends. Malls are a safe and dry place for teenagers to hang out with their friends that’s away from their parents. And that has been true for at least a couple millennia.