VITAL STATISTICS

Housing, oil costs dominate year in review

SEACOAST VENTURES: From a demographer's point of view, what were some of the highlights and low lights of 2007?

PETER FRANCESE: One highlight was the increased awareness on the Seacoast of the importance of work-force housing and its connection to the economic health of this region. The groundwork has now been done so that our civic leaders can discuss what steps need to be done to provide more affordable housing next year and in the future. The lowest light, in my view, is that some folks still want to age restrict any new housing to exclude families with kids, despite falling school enrollments. I am deeply concerned about the negative attitudes towards children.

SV: Occupational forecasts in Maine and New Hampshire indicate the industries of health care, technology and financial services to be "hot" for the foreseeable future. What are some of the challenges facing the region, from labor demands to migratory patterns?

FRANCESE: The biggest challenge employers in this region will face in the coming years will be their inability to attract young workers. It's simply too expensive for them to live anywhere within a reasonable commute to work on the Seacoast. Unfortunately, too many prospective job seekers with the professional degrees we need can do better elsewhere.

SV: Business trade groups in the area report a flourish in the field of personal services, from cooks visiting homes to personal trainers. Why are these services in such demand, and what is it say about the local economy?

FRANCESE: It says that the Seacoast is exhibiting the same tilt to the top of the income distribution that is occurring throughout the nation. The most affluent at the very top of the distribution is doing extremely well financially and can easily afford such luxuries. But the middle class here and elsewhere is getting hammered with a combination of stagnant incomes along with rising costs for fuel, housing, health care and education. It is not a balanced picture.

SV: The housing market took some hits in the latter half of 2007, thanks to mortgage lending troubles, but how do you see 2008 shaping up? Will the winter and spring construction seasons pull New England through?

FRANCESE: We have a more resilient housing market because we have more demand categories, such as working people, retirees and second home owners, and a higher income than the nation. I think that when present conditions start to improve, probably in the spring, the Seacoast will be among the first to recover, but only if lenders are there for the home buyers.

SV: Energy costs have traditionally been a big factor for area businesses, particularly manufacturing. Oil prices flirted with $100 a barrel last month. Motorists grumble about paying more than $3 per gallon and families worry about home heating costs. Why should businesses have a reason to similarly worry?

FRANCESE: I think we on the Seacoast and all over New England have a lot to worry about because the rapidly rising cost of heating oil for our homes and gasoline for our cars will siphon off a great deal of cash that otherwise might have been spent in local retail or service establishments. It points up the urgent necessity to "go green" and take energy efficiency into account in all aspects of community planning as well as in our personal lives.

SV: What are your New Year's Resolutions?

FRANCESE: Try to be more patient to better understand the complexity of "issues," and listen harder to what people are saying about their difficulties in trying to make it on the Seacoast.